(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.9N 117.0E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.6N 114.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY
164 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 170230Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES THERE IS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A
NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 170226Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEPICTS THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NAVGEM IS THE ONLY OUTLIER AND INDICATES
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO AND
JGSM) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND CHINA IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.