CX723-A330

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 AM PDT WED OCT 9 2013


FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

DEPRESSION NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE

SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF

ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS

DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS

WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A

HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN

NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
48hrs:40%
Next 5 days:80%