簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-7-27 16:54
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JTWC 00Z 直接評級Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.3N 90.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE BAY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 261533Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE;
HOWEVER, FUTHER ORGANIZATION IS HAMPERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) IN ADDITION TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE INTO INDIA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IF THE DISTURBANCE WERE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH,
THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY AND GOOD OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
EC 00Z預報
預測將在原地發展
三天後在印度或孟加拉附近登陸
+48
+72
GFS
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES,
NEW DELHI
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 27-07-2015
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED
AT 0600 UTC OF 27 JULY, 2015 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 27 JULY, 2015
THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING COASTAL
AREAS OF BANGLADESH & WEST BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY
DURING THE LAST 15 HRS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 27 JULY 2015 NEAR LATITUDE 22.00 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 90.20
EAST, CLOSE TO WEST OF KHEPUPARA (41960). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR SOME MORE TIME AND MAY CONCENTRATE INTO
A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS CI.1.5. PATTERN IS SHEAR PATTERN. DISTANCE
BETWEEN CENTRE AND CLOUD MASS IS NEARLY 100 KMS. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE
ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. THE ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 HPA.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 27TH JULY 2015.=
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