martin191919

MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
133.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241106Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLCC. A 240022Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH VIGOROUS 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR
INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOT SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS WITH A SLP VALUE
NEAR 1010 MB. HOWEVER, THE 24/00Z KOROR SOUNDING INDICATES A DEEP
LAYER OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 15000 FEET. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, VWS SHOULD
DECREASE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS INDICATED BY BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

millerkit31

說回91W，其實其已具一定渦度，位置目前在菲律賓東南海域。香港天文台的電腦預測91W會增強，並向西北移動，橫過菲中，於72小時後進入南海中部。由於天文台已預計高壓會西伸，故進入南海後，相信91w會大致維持西北路徑，趨向海南島附近海域。惟現時一切只是預測，須待更進一步觀察才能再分析。

millerkit31

我不懂氣象 發表於 2013-8-24 19:44
菲律賓東南方的雲　
會不會變颱風ㄚ？
今年日本本地　

今年日本少風，很大原因是因為今年的副高強度偏強，且中心多維持在日本附近的中緯地方，颱風相對副高而言只像粒細沙石，尺度上強度上，颱風自難北上突破副高，到訪日本。惟九月開始，北方西風槽漸活躍，副高東退情況出現機會比前大，屆時台風就有可能北移了。

我不懂氣象

菲律賓東南方的雲　
會不會變颱風ㄚ？
今年日本本地　
颱風數量怎還掛鴨蛋的原因是什麼ㄋ？

J18

其實他的幅散幅合皆不錯 窩度也相對的深
他最大的問題仍然是風切 但近幾個小時風切稍減
勢必會對他有利!

ha093405

氣象局預測未來一週會有熱帶系統接近台灣，跟大家討論的這隻不知道有沒有關聯

martin191919

JTWC：LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 135.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 221452Z SHOWS A WEAK, (05-10 KNOTS) BROAD
CIRCULATION IN THE AREA AND A WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 230107Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE BUT
OVERALL REMAINS POOR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE OUTFLOW
AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

sheeprex

目前數值還是先看看就好 不要太過認真
畢竟還有一段的時間跟距離