Meow

按照 IMD 與 JTWC 預測，這有望成為北印度洋近年來最強熱帶氣旋，而且若真以特強氣旋風暴甚至超級氣旋風暴登陸恆河三角洲，Phailin 可能成為 2013 年傷亡最慘重風暴。

jwpk9899

IMD升格氣旋風暴
命名PHAILIN


Time of issue: 2000 hours IST Dated: 09-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/09
Sub: Cyclonic storm, PHAILIN in East central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Alert for North Andhra Pradesh and Orissa Coast. Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Island



The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationery, intensified into a cyclonic storm, PHAILIN and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, 09thth October 2013 over near latitude 13.50N and longitude 92.50E, about 220 km north-northwest of Port Blair, 950km southeast of Paradip, 1100 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would continue to move west-northwestwards for some time and then northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by night of 12thth October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph.
Squally winds speed reaching 50-60kmph gusting to 70 kmph would prevail over Andaman Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be very rough along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs.

CX723-A330

中心已經成形了!?
這.....這也整合得太快了
果然是來自西太的擾動，有着暴力級的增強速度

jwpk9899

IMA這次相當看好02B的強度
預估有機會達到特強氣旋風暴目前IMD認為他已經增強為一個強低氣壓(DD)


Time of issue: 0900 hours IST Dated: 09-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/05
Sub: Deep Depression over north Andaman Sea: Cyclone Alert for North Andhra
Pradesh and Orissa Coast.
Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Island
The depression over North Andaman Sea moved northwestward with a speed of 13 kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 09thth October 2013 over north Andaman Sea near latitude 13.00N and longitude 93.50E, about 170 km north-northeast of Port Blair, 1100 km east-southeast of Paradip, 1200 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It would move west-northwestwards and cross Andaman islands near Mayabandar by noon of today, the 9thth October 2013 as a cyclonic storm. It would then continue to move west-northwestwards for some time and then northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by night of 12thth October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph.

krichard2011

JTWC 升格02B 預測強度上看Cat.2

SHYUDOL

JTWC也發布TCFA囉

另外IMD編號BOB 04 不過也很奇怪
八月中的時候IMD才編過一次BOB4 怎麼這次又是BOB4...

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST Dated: 08-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/01
Sub: Depression over north Andaman Sea.
Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over north Andaman Sea and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 08thth October 2013 near latitude 12.00N and longitude 96.00E, about 350 km east-northeast of Port Blair, 1450 km east-southeast of Paradip, 1520 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a deep depression and further into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow. It would move west-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast during next 72 hours.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over Andaman Islands during the same period.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail over Andaman Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Nicobar Islands during this period.
Fishermen of Andaman Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hrs.
The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, 08thth October 2013.

jwpk9899

JTWC評級MEDIUM囉

  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 98.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 98.0E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS TRACKED OFF THE MALAY PENINSULA
AND OVER WATER IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 071439Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 071439Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWED 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEFINED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

SHYUDOL

(剛剛居然按錯帖...)
JMA認為他是一個熱帶低壓
另外整體雲系逐漸進入孟加拉灣
晚點看看定位會不會改過去
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 101E WEST 15 KT.