簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2013-10-5 21:48
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近岸爆發已評Low!
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9N 102.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051119Z WINDSAT IMAGE HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. SINCE THE LLCC APPEARS DISORGANIZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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