|
|
完了，如果真的預測以二級登陸緬甸肯定要死幾百人。
- WTIO31 PGTW 100900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
- REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151Z MAY 13//
- AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
- RMKS/
- 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001
- 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- ---
- WARNING POSITION:
- 100600Z --- NEAR 4.8N 93.6E
- MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
- POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
- POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
- PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- REPEAT POSIT: 4.8N 93.6E
- ---
- FORECASTS:
- 12 HRS, VALID AT:
- 101800Z --- 6.2N 92.4E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
- ---
- 24 HRS, VALID AT:
- 110600Z --- 7.1N 91.1E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
- ---
- 36 HRS, VALID AT:
- 111800Z --- 8.3N 89.7E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
- ---
- EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
- 48 HRS, VALID AT:
- 120600Z --- 9.7N 88.9E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
- ---
- 72 HRS, VALID AT:
- 130600Z --- 12.8N 88.4E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
- 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
- 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
- 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
- VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
- ---
- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
- ---
- 96 HRS, VALID AT:
- 140600Z --- 17.4N 90.5E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
- ---
- 120 HRS, VALID AT:
- 150600Z --- 22.0N 94.6E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
- WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
- ---
- REMARKS:
- 100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.1N 93.3E.
- TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1052 NM SOUTH OF
- CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
- THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
- DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
- WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED
- CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 100715Z AMSU-B IMAGE,
- WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED ON THE
- EASTERN TIP OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH
- QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE RECENT
- IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER,
- A 100244Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE BOTH SHOW 35-KNOT
- WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35
- KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE OCEANSAT IMAGE
- SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE LLCC IS
- LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND
- SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO
- TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE
- STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
- THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN
- POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE
- SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PAKISTAN AND THE
- NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE INTO
- MYANMAR AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN
- BAY OF BENGAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
- THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
- CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. TC 01B
- IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO
- DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
- AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
- 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND
- 110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
- WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100151Z MAY 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
- ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 100200).//
- NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多資源
您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看，沒有賬號？立即加入
x
評分
-
查看全部評分
|
