TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F CENTRE 999HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.0S 162.5E
AT 312100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPEHRAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND
REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 06
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS
MOVING IN TO A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS AND THEN IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH FURTHER DEEPENING.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
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