強度係於04/18Z達到巔峰：MFR--95kts、945hpa；JTWC--115kts、937hpa。
MFR判定08/00Z已轉化為後熱帶低壓。

ZCZC 081
WTIO30 FMEE 080043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/10/20182019
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 630 SW: 520 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 330 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/08 12 UTC: 32.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/03/09 00 UTC: 35.1 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/09 12 UTC: 37.6 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/10 00 UTC: 39.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS A TYPICAL
POST-TROPICAL PATTERN WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING RESIDUAL AND
REMOVED FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER. WV IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS WEST. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES BASED ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OF THE BROAD EX-HALEH'S
CIRCULATION.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED: HALEH IS MOVING GENERALLY
SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SMALL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH
AND ITS EASTWARDS SHIFT. FROM SATURDAY, AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DISPERSION IS RATHER WEAK.
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO
AWIO20 FMEE DAILY BULLETIN ISSUED AT 12Z AND FQIO20 FMEE BULLETIN
ISSUED TWICE DAILY.=
NNNN

MFR判定04/18Z近中心最大風速升至95kts，中心氣壓945hpa。強度已近巔峰。

ZCZC 037
WTIO30 FMEE 041807 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SW: 430 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/05 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/05 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/06 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/06 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/07 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/07 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/08 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/09 18 UTC: 39.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+
NNNN

JTWC亦認同一時間近中心最大風速升至115kts，中心氣壓937hpa，已達辛普森颶風等級的C4。

17S HALEH
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 04, 2019:

Location: 19.1°S 72.5°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 011
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.1S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.3S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.1S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 37.0S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 72.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

MFR 04/12Z升格為強烈熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速達90kts。發展較預期迅速。

ZCZC 246
WTIO30 FMEE 041252 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 430 SW: 430 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/05 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/06 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/06 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/07 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/07 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/08 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/09 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5
NNNN

JTWC則先於04/06Z升格為C3，近中心最大風速105kts；12Z維持同一強度。

17S HALEH
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 04, 2019:

Location: 18.7°S 72.6°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 951 mb

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 72.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 72.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.6S 72.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.6S 71.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.6S 70.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.9S 69.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 26.1S 67.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 30.0S 65.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 34.8S 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 25-30 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CLOUD FIELD HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE MSI LOOP
AND AN EYE FEATURE IN A 041130Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AROUND TAU 96, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS TC 17S ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THROUGH
TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE AND THE
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN AT 100 KTS OR GREATER THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 48, A COMBINATION OF DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, INCREASED VWS,
AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN, FALLING TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TC 17S
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
LIES EAST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF
NAVGEM, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE BULK OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

MFR 04/00Z升格為熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速達65kts。預測36小時後可能增強為強烈熱帶氣旋。

ZCZC 760
WTIO30 FMEE 040017 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 73.1 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/4.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 430 SW: 430 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/04 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/05 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/06 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/06 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/07 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/08 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/09 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-
NNNN

JTWC同一時間亦將近中心最大風速上調為90kts，已達辛普森颶風等級的C2。

17S HALEH
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 04, 2019:

Location: 17.1°S 73.3°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb

WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 73.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 73.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 18.0S 73.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.1S 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.1S 71.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.2S 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 23.6S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 26.5S 67.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 30.2S 65.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 73.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPANSIVE SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE EQUATORWARD SIDE,
WRAPPING IN TIGHTER INTO A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A
FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 032255Z 37GHZ
NEAR-SURFACE COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU
24, THE STR WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 115KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL PROMOTE A STEADY WEAKENING AND,
BY TAU 120, TC HALEH WILL BE REDUCED TO 60KTS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHERE NAVGEM DEVIATES
SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE MODEL CLUSTER INTO THE STR, SPREADING THE
ENVELOPE UP TO 380NM BY TAU 120. DESPITE THIS SINGLE MODEL DEVIATION,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48 TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY
NAVGEM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

MFR 02/18Z升格為強烈熱帶風暴，近中心最大風速達50kts，預測巔峰上望80kts。

ZCZC 553
WTIO30 FMEE 021839 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 74.0 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 220 NW: 90
48 KT NE:  SE:  SW: 90 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/03 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/03 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/04 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/04 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/05 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/05 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/06 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/07 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+
NNNN