03W 接近民答那峨 發展受限

霧峰追風者 發表於 2019-3-20 01:30

老農民版夜神月發表於 2019-3-20 00:19
有個小錯誤,其實那是JMA06Z時的天氣圖,12ZJMA已經連低壓都撤了,JMA天氣圖時間(UTC)位於左上角

感謝提醒，已經修改為正確時間^^

點評

king111807

少於20字請使用點評，以免受罰發表於 2019-3-20 17:32

霧峰追風者 發表於 2019-3-19 18:46

本帖最後由霧峰追風者於 2019-3-20 01:29 編輯

JMA 06Z減弱為低壓，已登陸民答那峨。

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 123E WEST 10 KT

霧峰追風者 發表於 2019-3-18 19:53

本帖最後由霧峰追風者於 2019-3-18 20:28 編輯

JTWC 06Z發FW,接近菲中群島，逐漸消散。

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 6.6N 128.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 6.5N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 6.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 127.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION
SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD OF A RAGGED, EXPOSED, AND ILL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. A 180121Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED AND OPENED INTO A WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH. THE
SAME ASCAT IMAGERY AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
INDICATE THE TD HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 12, THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF
MINDANAO NEAR DAVAO LEADING TO ITS FURTHER EROSION. HOWEVER, THE
SHEARED CONVECTION WILL STILL BRING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN TRIGGER GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS AND
FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN MINDANAO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN