JMA19/12Z取消TD;JTWC亦於19/1600Z加報中撤評91W
JMA19/09Z天氣圖

19/12Z天氣圖


JTWC19/1600Z加報

ABPW10 PGTW 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191600Z-200600ZJUL2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZJUL2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 191200Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WAS LOCATED NEAR
31.7N 124.9E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 191500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8N
119.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) HAS DISSIPATED.//
NNNN

91W昨天晚間中央氣局201時天氣概況已經減弱消失
只剩下水氣及西南風造成南部更多降雨

91W雖然減弱,但是副高過去一天又比預期強勢
使得丹娜絲偏東角度小,持續往北,侵襲南韓
這樣一來南邊的水氣就很可能帶上來,西南部還是會中

現在高屏外海的輻合帶降水如果停滯且增強
這種就容易致災

JTWC判定已於高屏交界附近登陸,同時取消TCFA

18/18Z,JMA:TD[W]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 21.5N 120.4E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NE 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

18/12Z窩度圖

過濾前風場圖

過濾後風場圖


風場掃出來的風力是夠
緯度20N左右的南面中心旁35KT的旗幟不少
但問題就在那個狹長,混亂不堪的中心
系統基本結構上就過不太了關
再加上目前已經十分接近陸地
CWB至今不升TD看來不是沒有道理的

當然如果JMA是以1903聖帕或1904木恩剛升格時的型態標準,平等看待91W
那他們也可能立即升格91W為1906百合,畢竟風場圖明顯已經風速部分達標
終究颱風的升格與否還是主要看的是JMA臉色

裸奔的LLCC是原本定位的主中心...不過下午後幾乎都原地踏步!!
至於南邊副中心風場掃出40kts..而且持續北上中...看深夜會不會整合囉!!
目前兩邊都爆對流、而且整合情況看起來還不錯..就看今晚狀況了