JTWC08/0600Z報中撤評

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 117.8E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JTWC昨天19Z降評Low

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 117.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY
205 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGHLY SHEARED PERSISTENT CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET
BY HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ABOVE THE
LLCC, LARGELY DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM TY 10W TO THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL BE ABSORBED BY TY 10W
BETWEEN TAU 24-48 AS 96W TRACKS NORTHEAST AND 10W CONTINUES TRACKING
TOWARDS TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

JMA 00Z取消[W]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA AT 16N 118E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JTWC評級Mediim

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.7N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. A 061349Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. A 061351Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS THE ELONGATED LLC WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST THAT ARE NOT YET WRAPPED AROUND, WITH WEAKER 15 KT
WINDS ELSEWHERE SURROUNDING THE STORM. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY LIMITED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE
TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN
A DISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH A LIMITED WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION AS
96W MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY TS 10W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

JMA:TD[W]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 15.9N 117.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

JMA 09Z判定為TD



GFS 00Z的系集平均當中認為有機會登陸台灣

電腦模擬不看好發展到熱帶風暴，根據下圖電腦模，頂多發展到熱帶性低氣壓，穿越呂宋島後遭利奇馬吞併或自行消散；不過有少數的路徑會跟者利奇馬的尾巴登陸臺灣。
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