WTPN21 PGTW 031830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022121ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 022130). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.9E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.5E, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
031411Z 89GHZ METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT
28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH TD 16W TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS NO LONGER EXISTS.//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 111.8E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WTPN21 PGTW 022130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N 113.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.4N 113.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021741Z 89GHZ AMSR2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SMALLER EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS DRIVING SOME
FLARING CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30C)
SST, AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SYSTEM DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TD 16W TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. EITHER INDEPENDENTLY OR AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TD 16W, MODELS AGREE ON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032130Z.//
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