00Z速報評價140節，只花了一天從35節飆升到140...

03S AMBALI 191206 0000 10.5S 62.2E SHEM 140 924

MFR評價120KT，已達VITC

ZCZC 716
WTIO30 FMEE 060045 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20192020
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)
2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 62.2 E
(TEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0-
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MFR判定05/18Z升格為強烈熱帶氣旋，定強90kts。預測巔峰上望100kts。

ZCZC 090
WTIO30 FMEE 051818 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/3/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)
2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 62.5 E
(TEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5
NNNN

JTWC亦認同一時間升至C3，定強100kts。

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 004   
WTXS32 PGTW 052100   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 004   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 62.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 62.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 11.1S 62.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 12.0S 62.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 13.0S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 13.5S 61.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 14.1S 60.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 15.0S 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 15.9S 58.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 62.3E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

小核心就是這麼難猜