(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 63.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 61.7E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A 050859Z AMSU
IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND SHALLOW, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO
STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. IN GENERAL, THE
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT AND A PERSISTENT MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD; HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.