jwpk9899 發表於 2012-7-25 10:24 閣下的看法, 我不太認同 看過你的圖片, 90E好像不太有組織 對流尚算旺盛但十分散亂....... 風力更不用談(圖) |
| 其實東太的SST較高區域不大 之前90E就已在此區邊緣 而今漸漸移出此區 SST日降也影響到他的發展 未來機會持續減低...不看好 |
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Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Cancelled Issued at 24/2100Z TCFA取消了...不過目前對流還是維持得不錯 看看囉。 1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OFMANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. 機率也降至40% MEDIUM了 |
jwpk9899 發表於 2012-7-23 09:34 有何用?? 沒有AREA會受影響 THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 109.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 110.2W, APPROXIMATELY 705 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTANT CLUSTER OF CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). A 221241Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH A CURVING BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 220421 ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, WITH LIGHTER 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY A 220603Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT PASS. THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ESTIMATED AT 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. |
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1天...TCFA囉 |
組圖打開中，請稍候......
