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熱帶低氣壓 04U AXAU01 APRF 280655 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0655 UTC 28/12/2012 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 15.6S Longitude: 111.7E Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km] Movement Towards: south [189 deg] Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h] Central Pressure: 1000 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km] Storm Depth: Deep FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +12: 28/1800: 16.6S 111.2E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 995 +24: 29/0600: 17.8S 110.8E: 095 [175]: 040 [075]: 993 +36: 29/1800: 19.3S 110.7E: 115 [210]: 050 [095]: 986 +48: 30/0600: 21.1S 110.6E: 135 [245]: 055 [100]: 982 +60: 30/1800: 23.3S 110.1E: 150 [280]: 045 [085]: 988 +72: 31/0600: 25.6S 109.4E: 170 [320]: 035 [065]: 995 REMARKS: Convective organisation assocaited with system 04U has greatly improved in the last 24 hours, likely due to Kelvin wave propagating through the area. However low level cloud lines are not particularly well organised and there are still low level squall lines emanating from the convection indicative of convective downdrafts driven by dry air in the mid levels. Hence it may take a little while to moisten the mid levels before the system can reach TC intensity. Ocean heat content is high in the vicinity and shear is less than 20 knots. Upper divergence currently good to east and southeast. Conditions expected to remain favourable to very favourable over the next two days before the system moves over cooler water off the west coast. TPW is favourable, i.e. no dry air threatening the system. Expect development at D or D+ rate. Cooler waters south of 20S should begin to weaken the system from early Monday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC. |
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好的 真的TCFA囉另外 FMS將氣壓定為1000hpa WTXS21 PGTW 280930 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1S 111.8E TO 20.5S 109.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 111.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 112.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 111.7E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM EVIDENT IN A 280510Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER, DIRECTLY BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. A 280201Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE, WITH A FEW 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290930Z.// NNNN |
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