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評級直接降到 LOW。 WTPN21 PGTW 030530 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020551Z JAN 15// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 020600). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 113.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 109.3E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION DISPLACED WESTWARD OF THE THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) APPROXIMATELY 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THE VWS TO ABATE ALONG THE CYCLONES PROJECTED TRACK AND ARE NO LONGER INTENSIFYING THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO A LOW. // NNNN |
| 我也覺得有可能依然沿用薔蜜這個名字,因為氣象局的慣例向來如此,很少像南太平洋國家重新再給新名字,不然當年韋恩要改名了 |
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JTWC 發布 TCFA，應該很快就升格熱低了。 WTPN21 PGTW 020600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1N 113.6E TO 4.7N 108.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 113.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 113.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WEST. A 020149Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS, ALONG WITH A 012344Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTER. A RECENT EDGE OF SWATH ASCAT PASS (020150Z) INDICATED A CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH IS BEING INDUCED BY THE ADJACENT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 030600Z. // NNNN |
| 這個就是薔蜜的背風低壓，另一篇有提到了。 |
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