現在仍是熱帶氣旋，即將越過南緯 30 度。

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 036
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone OLA [995hPa] centre was located near 29.3 South 163.2 East at 031200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 29.3S 163.2E at 031200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving south 9 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the southwest semicircle and within 45 nautical miles of centre in the northeast semicircle.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 032.

Ola 成為本年度南太平洋第一個強烈熱帶氣旋，但是不看好繼續增強。



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0751 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 965HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4S 162.1E AT 010600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.  
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE
47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES
ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON AN
EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN, LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG GIVING DT=4.5, PT AND MT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAKENING TREND.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 21.7S 162.1E MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 22.8S 161.9E MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 23.7S 161.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 24.5S 160.9E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
0114000 UTC.