已經於當地時間凌晨兩點左右登陸 Milingimbi 與 Elcho 之間
可惜附近測站已在昨天傍晚左右幾乎全掛點

現在都流行近岸增強嗎~
LAM型態就沒這麼美了~

Lam 算是苦盡甘來，達到四級強烈熱帶氣旋（100 節），JTWC 也評價 100 節，但馬上就要登陸，沒發展空間了。



IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1231 UTC 19/02/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 135.4E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [15 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 943 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/1800: 12.3S 135.2E:     025 [050]:  100  [185]:  945
+12:  20/0000: 12.7S 134.9E:     040 [070]:  075  [135]:  965
+18:  20/0600: 13.2S 134.7E:     050 [095]:  045  [085]:  988
+24:  20/1200: 13.8S 134.4E:     065 [120]:  035  [070]:  995
+36:  21/0000: 15.1S 133.6E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]:  999
+48:  21/1200: 16.5S 132.3E:     105 [190]:  030  [055]: 1000
+60:  22/0000: 17.7S 130.9E:     125 [230]:  030  [055]: 1000
+72:  22/1200: 18.8S 129.5E:     140 [265]:  030  [055]: 1000
+96:  23/1200: 20.3S 125.4E:     185 [345]:  030  [055]: 1000
+120: 24/1200: 22.6S 122.4E:     275 [505]:  025  [045]: 1002
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Lam has recently intensified to a category 4 system with
a cloud filled eye and an extensive banding feature evident on recent infrared
satellite imagery. Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern with a white
surround and a subraction for a black eye and a cold medium grey surround,
giving a CF of 5.5. An added 0.5 for a BF gave a DT of 6.0. MET and PAT are...
FT was based on a 3-hour averaged DT as it appears clear.

The position of the system is rated as good based on radar imagery from across
the Top End of the Northern Territory. Observations from Ngayawili indicated
storm force winds with wind gusts up to 81 knots in the southern eye wall before
the Automatic Weather Station failed.

There has been some trochoidal motion evident in severe tropical cyclone Lam's
progession towards the coast, but overall the system appears to be moving slowly
in a southwest direction as it begins to move over the northeast Top End coast.
Lam should continue moving in this direction overnight and should fully move
across the coast during Friday morning, where it will then continue to move
inland and begin to weaken.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

眼牆大致已建立完成
待風眼正式開啟後 近岸爆發應該就要開始了

krichard2011 發表於 2015-2-18 23:40
BoM 升澳式C3 並且持續上看澳式C4
認為有機會上演近岸爆發

18Z 的 BoM 除了提到開始向南移動、風速調升到 75 節以外，也認為可能已開始快速增強。JTWC 也調升到 75 節。

In combination with a strengthening outflow channel to the south and the appearance of fanning of cirrus in satellite imagery, it's likely that a period of rapid intensification is occurring.

BoM 升澳式C3 並且持續上看澳式C4
認為有機會上演近岸爆發

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1237 UTC 18/02/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 136.4E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [284 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 971 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/1800: 11.0S 136.3E:     020 [040]:  065  [120]:  971
+12:  19/0000: 11.1S 136.0E:     035 [065]:  070  [130]:  969
+18:  19/0600: 11.2S 135.9E:     045 [085]:  075  [140]:  965
+24:  19/1200: 11.5S 135.7E:     060 [110]:  080  [150]:  960
+36:  20/0000: 12.2S 135.3E:     080 [145]:  090  [165]:  952
+48:  20/1200: 13.3S 134.7E:     100 [180]:  060  [110]:  978
+60:  21/0000: 14.5S 133.9E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  997
+72:  21/1200: 15.8S 132.5E:     135 [255]:  020  [035]: 1002
+96:  22/1200: 17.8S 129.2E:     180 [335]:  015  [030]: 1005
+120: 23/1200:             :              :            :     

iCyclone 整理的數據表示 Lam 確實達到三級強烈熱帶氣旋的威力，不過眼牆不成熟、西強東弱、風眼也偏大。

Lam 是 2006 年 Monica 以來首個影響北領地的強烈熱帶氣旋。

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 1:30 pm CST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.0 degrees South, 136.8 degrees East , 135 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy Airport and 170 kilometres northeast of Elcho Island .
Movement: west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cycone Lam is expected to continue intensifying as it moves toward the west parallel to the coast before turning towards the southwest overnight.