2.A POSITION 2015/02/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 71.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/25 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/25 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/02/26 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/26 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE 60H: 2015/02/27 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2015/02/27 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/28 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2015/03/01 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=2.5+.
THE SYSTEME HAS BEEN NAMED GLENDA AT 1200Z.
1012Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SUGGESTS THE PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE MINIMAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN
ESTIMATED THANKS TO THE BUOY NR 53523.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHIFTING EASTWARDS. SYSTEM IS THEREFORE TRACKING
GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS BEARING UNTIL
THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE
DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED AT THIS RANGE TO THE NORTH-EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO THE SOUTH.
ON THIS FORESCAST TRACK, THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD BECOME WEAK
AND THE SYSTEME SHOULD TAKE BENEFIT OF A GOOD DIVERGENCE. THEREFORE,
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE CLEARLY.
ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS EFFECT BEING OFFSET BY A BOOSTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ON SATURDAY, SHIFTING OVER MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT AND
EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/10/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 10
2.A POSITION 2015/02/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 77.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/23 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/02/23 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2015/02/24 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/02/24 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/02/25 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/02/25 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/02/26 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/02/27 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
ASCAT DATA OF 0335Z SHOW A CIRCULATION YET ELONGATED, STRONGER WINDS
ARE LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE TRADES FLOW, AND ARE FEEDING
THE DEEP CONVECTION ONLY LOCATED IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TRACKING WESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
BENEFITE OF THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, WITH THE WEAKENING
OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE IMPROVING EQUATORIAL
DIVERGENCE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOMORROW MORE WEST SOUTH-WESTWARDS,
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKEN IN THE SOUTH.
UNTIL THURSDAY AND ON TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY,
LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A
BUILDING OUTFLOW CHANNEL EQUATORIAL. ON WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE UNDER THE RIDGE, THEN THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE MORE FRANK,
THE SYSTEM MAY REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS, UNDER THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF A ARRIVING TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, AND A
BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
THEN UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND REACHING
SST OF LESS ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL.
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=
JTWC發布TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 221400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 78.3E TO 15.8S 71.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 77.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
79.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 220841Z
NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED CENTER. A 220333Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231400Z.//
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