法國還沒編擾動區美國就先編 15S 了，報文也沒寫到為何達到強度。



WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 42.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 42.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 16.6S 42.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 17.0S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 17.0S 40.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 16.7S 40.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 16.7S 41.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 17.3S 43.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 19.0S 46.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 42.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, MOSTLY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 051009Z GCOM 36 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE
91 GHZ SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND ANIMATION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM AND AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HOWEVER,
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST AS
A FINGER OF THE STR EXTENDS IN THROUGH CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. BEYOND
TAU 48, THE STR WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK IN THAT DIRECTION. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96, EXPECT TC 15S TO
IMPACT THE BEMARAHA PLATEAU BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE MADAGASCAR
RANGE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO DOES NOT HAVE
THE STR EXTEND THROUGH MADAGASCAR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO
THE EAST BY TAU 36 AND INTO ISLAND NATION AS EARLY AS TAU 48. DUE TO
THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

JTWC發佈 TCFA
但對流仍有待加強


REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 42.1E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. A
041921Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
TOWARDS THE LLCC. A 041923Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS
(15-20 KNOT), LEADING TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.