(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1N 130.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES, WHICH IS FURTHER EVIDENT IN A
190031Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 190125Z SCATTEROMETER PASS
SHOWED A CLOSED, BUT ELONGATED, LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER AND STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LIMITED
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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