補JTWC Medium評級報文

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2N
68.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 67.7E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
DEVELOPING LLCC. A 220312Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC. A 220142Z WINDSAT
PASS SHOWS A 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER (UP TO
GALE FORCE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 990 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
LLCC ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

IMD升格深低壓

ARABIAN SEA:-

YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23RD JUNE 2015,
OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH GUJARAT COAST NEAR LATITUDE
20.5ONORTH AND LONGITUDE 70.5OEAST, ABOUT 50 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
DIU.  IT WOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH GUJARAT COAST
NEAR DIU AS A DEEP DEPRESSION BY TODAY, THE  23RD JUNE 2015 AFTERNOON
.
ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T
2.0. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -88.0OC. ASSOCIATED BROKEN
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LATITUDE 14.0ONORTH TO
22.0ONORTH AND EAST OF LONGITUDE 62.0OEAST. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA CONDITION IS VERY
ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALONG AND OFF GUJARAT COAST.
REMARKS:
THE LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINED SAME DURING PAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE
SAME PERIOD. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES IN
PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN ONE. THE SST IS ABOUT 30OC NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS <50 KJ/CM2 AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH LAND SURFACE. FURTHER,
A TROUGH IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LIES CLOSE TO WEST OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS DEEPENED DURING PAST 12 HOURS. THE INTENSIFICATION TO DEEP
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINLY DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
DEEPENING WESTERLY TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME, SYSTEM MOVED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ABOVE TROUGH AFTER
REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR SOME TIME. CURRENTLY, THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 20ONORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO EAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE AND MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY TROUGH RUNS ALONG 68OEAST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO, SYSTEM WOULD
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

補上今天早上發布的 TCFA

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 68.1E TO 21.2N 70.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 222030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8N 69.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.9N
68.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 69.0E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221711Z GMI
36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTER WRAPPED LLCC WITH INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS AT
221721Z SHOWED 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM REACHING WARNING CRITERIA PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

升格低壓ARB 02，最大風速25節、中心氣壓992百帕。

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA CONCENTRATED INTO A
DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22 JUNE 2015 OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 20.0°NORTH AND LONGITUDE 67.0°EAST, ABOUT 320 KM SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR. IT WOULD SLOWLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 16.5°NORTH TO 22.0°NORTH AND LONGITUDE 59.0°E TO 68.0°E. THE ESTIMATED CENTR AL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

JTWC評級Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N 67.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT 210201Z
WINDSAT SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH A FEW 25 KNOT WIND
BARBS ON THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG (UP TO GALE FORCE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW IN THE ARABIAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EASTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.