CPHC 稍早升格並命名為 ELA
但強度上不是很看好...



WTPA41 PHFO 090846
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM ELA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042015
1100 PM HST WED JUL 08 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
HAS SHUNTED THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 35 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH THE ON-BOARD SFMR INSTRUMENT WAS EXPERIENCING
DATA QUALITY ISSUES...REDUCTION OF FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTS
UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10 KT...WITH ELA BEING STEERED
BY THE FLOW AROUND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND A PERSISTENT
CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. UW-CIMSS INDICATES NEARLY 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM...AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING
SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FIRST
24 HOURS OR SO. AS SUCH...ELA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STORM
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO THE SHEAR AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW JUST
NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE DISSIPATION
OCCURS. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE...AND LIES
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 19.3N 145.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  09/1800Z 20.6N 146.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  10/0600Z 21.8N 148.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  10/1800Z 22.9N 151.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
48H  11/0600Z 23.5N 153.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
72H  12/0600Z 24.4N 158.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

NHC 00Z 升格04E
由於系統即將跨越140W
所以下一報將交由CPHC發報
有機會命名Ela

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080244
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042015
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015

Visible satellite images late this afternoon indicate that curved
bands of convection have developed around the center of the
well-defined low pressure system located more than 1000 n mi
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore the system now
qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated
at this time. SAB/TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range
from T1.5/25 kt to T2.5/35 kt, and the system has a pattern T-number
of T2.0, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. During the next 72 hours,
the cyclone is forecast to move in a general west-northwestward
direction along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge
located to its north. By 96 hours, the system is expected to weaken
and become more vertically shallow, and be steered westward by the
low-level easterly trade wind flow. The models are in general
agreement through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly after
that, with most of the NHC guidance moving the cyclone or its
remnants west-northwestward to northwestward at 96 and 120 hours.
The exception is the ECMWF model, which turns the system
west-southwestward by 96 hours and beyond. The official forecast
track is similar to the consensus model TVCE through 72 hours, and
then follows the ECMWF trend after that since this model maintains
a larger and more realistic vortex on days 4 and 5.

The SHIPS guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind
shear is expected to remain below 10 kt while the system is over 26C
or greater sea-surface temperatures for the next 24 hours or so,
which should allow for gradual strengthening into a tropical storm.
By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt
from the southwest, which should cap any intensification and induce
a steady weakening trend after that. However, the GFS-based SHIPS
model is forecasting stronger vertical shear than the ECMWF model
and, as a result, shows complete dissipation of the cyclone by 96
hours. Given the reliability of the ECMWF, the official intensity
forecast has incorporated a blend of these two models' shear
computations, and maintains the system as a tropical cyclone through
96 hours, and a remnant low at 120 hours. This scenario seems more
likely given the rather large size of the circulation, which will
make the vortex more shear resistant and also take longer to spin
down and dissipate.

The depression has crossed 140W longitude as of the 0300 UTC
advisory time, so this will be the last advisory issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on the
depression will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
in Honolulu Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 15.4N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  08/1200Z 16.6N 142.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  09/0000Z 17.6N 144.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  09/1200Z 18.6N 146.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  10/0000Z 19.6N 148.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  11/0000Z 21.5N 152.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  12/0000Z 22.7N 156.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 23.0N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NHC將兩天內發展機率提升至50%
五天發展機率更高達90%

2. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
producing a large area of cloudiness and scattered showers more than
1300 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the
system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

普遍看好能達到TS強度
趨向夏威夷