JTWC 06Z直接發出FW....


IMD 06Z降格低壓，不再看好命名

** WTIN20 DEMS 110711 ***
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED   11-10-2015

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
11TH OCTOBER 2015 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 11TH OCTOBER 2015



THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 05 KM PER HOUR DURING PAST 6 HOURS,
WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 11TH OCTOBER, 2015 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE
15.70N AND LONGITUDE 69.20E, ABOUT 490 KM WEST OF GOA (43192) AND
520 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43057). IT WOULD MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
THEREAFTER. DUE TO DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND SLOW MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, IT WOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY.



ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS C.I. 2.0.  CONVECTION
HAS DISORGANISED DURING PAST 12 HOURS.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION
LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW
AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LIE OVER AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.00N TO 19.50N AND LONGITUDE
64.00E TO 70.50E. LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS -770C.



THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. WINDS ARE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR.
SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.



FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE
BELOW:



DATE/TIME(UTC)POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
          (LAT.ON/LONG.0E) WIND SPEED (KMPH)      DISTURBANCE


11-10-2015/0300 15.7/69.2 45-55 GUSTING TO 65    DEPRESSION

11-10-2015/0600  15.8/69.2 45-55 GUSTING TO 65   DEPRESSION

11-10-2015/1200 16.0/69.0 40-50 GUSTING TO 60    DEPRESSION

11-10-2015/1800 16.2/68.7  40-50 GUSTING TO 60   DEPRESSION

12-10-2015/0000  16.5/68.2 40-50 GUSTING TO 60   DEPRESSION

12-10-2015/1200  17.1/67.0 35-45 GUSTING TO 55   DEPRESSION

13-10-2015/0000  17.7/65.6 25-35 GUSTING TO 45 WELL MARKED LOW





THE DEEP DEPRESSION WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED WITH REDUCED OUTFLOW AND HENCE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ANIMATION OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VAPOUR INDICATES DRY AIR INTRUSION AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION HAS REDUCED DURING
PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS 100 X 10-5 S-1,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 5-10 X 10-5 S-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 5-10 X 10-5 S-1. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 170N. HOWEVER, THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS ABOUT 10-20 KNOTS (MODERATE) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND
IS 5-10 KNOTS TO THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR SOME MORE TIME, IT MAY
EXPERIENCE THE DECREASED WIND SHEAR DURING THIS PERIOD. FURTHER,
THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
LOCATED CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE, IT MAY HELP
IN IMPROVING THE OUTFLOW IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL. THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS 28-290C.
THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2. HOWEVER, IT
DECREASES TOWARDS THE WEST.

THUS THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER WHILE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS.=

風力明顯不足....

JTWC 00Z直接降到25節，並推翻先前評價，只留下兩報35節，預測兩天後重回TS。

03A      THREE 151010 1800  15.5N   69.6E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151010 1200  15.3N   69.4E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151010 0600  15.1N   69.4E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151010 0000  14.9N   69.6E IO   35   996
03A      THREE 151009 1800  14.8N   69.9E IO   35   996
03A      THREE 151009 1200  14.4N   70.3E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151009 0600  14.0N   70.5E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151009 0000  13.7N   70.7E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151008 1800  13.4N   70.9E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151008 1200  13.1N   71.2E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151008 0600  12.9N   71.3E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151008 0000  12.7N   71.5E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151007 1800  12.6N   71.6E IO   30  1000
03A      THREE 151007 1200  12.5N   71.7E IO   25  1004
03A      THREE 151007 0600  12.5N   71.7E IO   20  1005
03A      THREE 151007 0000  12.5N   71.8E IO   20  1005

一夜過後對流慘不忍睹，看來命名這件事又充滿變數了...

IMD 06Z升格深低壓，預測18Z加強為氣旋風暴。

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED   10-10-2015

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 10TH
OCTOBER 2015 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER 2015

THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTNORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 7 KM PER HOUR DURING PAST 6 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO
A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10TH
OCTOBER, 2015 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 15.10 N AND
LONGITUDE 69.20 E, ABOUT 490 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GOA(43192) AND 570
KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003). IT WOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS
AND MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A MARGINAL CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT
24 HRS. THEREAFTER IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN
GRADUALLY FROM 12TH OCTOBER, 2015

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 2.0.  ASSOCIATED LOW
AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AT
MANY PLACES OVER AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 18.6
DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 65.0 DEGREE EAST TO 70.0 DEGREE EAST.

THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPARATURE IS MINUS 80 DEGREE CELSIUS.AVAILABLE
SHIP AND BUOY DATA AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE TO BE ABOUT 1001 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED TO
BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS GUSTTING TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE. WINDS
ARE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE
BELOW:

DATE/TIME  POSITION  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
(IST)   LAT.0N/LONG.0E)  WIND SPEED (KMPH)      DISTURBANCE

10-10-2015/0600  15.1/69.2   50-60 GUSTING TO 70    DEEP DEPRESSION
10-10-2015/1200  15.3/68.9   55-65 GUSTING TO 75    DEEP DEPRESSION
10-10-2015/1800  15.5/68.6   60-70 GUSTING TO 80    CYCLONIC STORM
11-10-2015/0000  15.7/68.3   70-80 GUSTING TO 90    CYCLONIC STORM
11-10-2015/0600  15.9/68.0   70-80 GUSTING TO 90    CYCLONIC STORM
11-10-2015/1800  16.3/67.5   70-80 GUSTING TO 90    CYCLONIC STORM
12-10-2015/0600  16.7/66.8   60-70 GUSTING TO 80    CYCLONIC STORM
12-10-2015/1800  17.1/66.1   55-65 GUSTING TO 75    DEEP DEPRESSION
13-10-2015/0600  17.6/65.1   45-55 GUSTING TO 65    DEPRESSION
13-10-2015/1800  18.1/64.1   35-45 GUSTING TO 55    DEPRESSION


THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS
29-300C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2. . THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 170N.  THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS ABOUT 10-20 KNOTS (MODERATE) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
HOWEVER, IT IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) TO THE NORTH. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS 100 X 10-5 S-1, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 10-20 X 10-5
S-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
5-10 X 10-5 S-1, OVER THE EASTERN SECTOR. ANIMATION OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOUR INDICATES DRY AIR INTRUSION AROUND THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT
INITIAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT UPTO 24 HRS AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT THEREAFTER. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD
, IT WOULD ENCOUNTER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH MAY
HELP IN SUSTAINING THE INTENSITY AND IN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD. THEREAFTER, IT WOULD BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AGAIN AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AND COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE SYTEM FROM 12TH OCTOBER.

JTWC 06Z預測將有可能以熱帶風暴下限強度登陸阿曼。

JTWC 18Z評價35節並升格03A，巔峰上望45節，後期將在阿拉伯海減弱消散。

IMD在中午升格低壓區並編號ARB03
目前預測48小時內將會增強到深低壓

Time of issue: 1400 hours IST Dated: 09.10.2015

Bulletin No.: ARB03/2015/03
Sub: Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea.
The depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea remained practically stationary for the past 6 hours and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, the 9th October, 2015 near latitude 14.00 N and longitude 70.30 E, about 410 km west-southwest of Goa and 630 km south-southwest of Mumbai. It would move initially north-northwestwards slowly and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.

Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next 24 hours and over Konkan and Goa during subsequent 24 hrs.

Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph would prevail along and off Konkan, Goa and Karnataka coasts during next 48 hrs and along and off Kerala coast and Lakshadweep area during next 24 hrs. Sea condition would be rough.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea along and off Karnataka,Konkan and Goa coasts during next 48 hrs and Kerala coast and Lakshadweep area during next 24 hrs.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030hrs IST of today, the 9th October, 2015

** WTIN20 DEMS 090340 ***
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
          SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED   09-10-2015

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED
AT 0300 UTC OF 09TH OCTOBER 2015 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 09TH OCTOBER 2015.

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 9TH OCTOBER, 2015 NEAR LATITUDE 14.00 N
AND LONGITUDE 70.30 E, ABOUT 410 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GOA (43192)
AND 630 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003). IT WOULD MOVE INITIALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION WITHIN
NEXT 24 HRS.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5.  ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN
LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 16.5 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE
65.0 DEGREE EAST TO 71.0 DEGREE EAST. THE CONVECTION INCREASED IN
PAST 12 HOURS WITH INCREASE IN ORGANISATION. AVAILABLE SHIP AND
BUOY DATA AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE SUGGESTS THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE TO BE ABOUT 1003 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. THE WINDS ARE HIGHER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTOR.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS
29-31 DEG C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ABOUT 10-20 KNOTS (MODERATE) AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY AND CONVERGENCE
HAVE INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HRS. THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT
200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 160N. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
DEPRESSION INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL
STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
UNANIMOUS ABOUT INITIAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.

CONSIDERING ABOVE DIAGNOSIS AND PROGNOSIS, THE DEPRESSION WOULD
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESWARDS INITIALLY AND WOULD INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.

對流集中在系統西側，仍有待整合。

看了一年多北印度洋的颶風，發覺北印度洋的颶風大多是在近岸形成的颶風，好像比較少像西太都是遠洋形成容易造成重大災害，而北印度洋近岸形成的颶風之所以造成重大災害是缺乏公共建設的緣故這是和西太比較不一樣的地方