從昨天下午開始在紅外線雲圖看來它的雲層就已經跟南方雲層連結在一起了，今天下午看來更明顯我看巔峰已過了:P

MFR00Z命名之後，在06Z立刻降格為熱帶低壓
12Z報預測後期將受風切影響，不再看好重回中度熱帶風暴強度

** WTIO30 FMEE 111232 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  2  (EX-BOHALE)

2.A POSITION 2015/12/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 68.6 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/12 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/12 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/12/13 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/12/14 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/12/14 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/15 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/12/16 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0+ AND CI=2.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION REMAINED CLOSE TO ITS
PREVIOUS LEVEL OF 06Z. MICROWAVE 39GHZ AMSR2 DATA AT 0821Z DO NOT
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, CLOSE
TO THE LLCC. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY REVEALS THE ADVECTION OF DRY
AIR BY THE NORTH-WEST TO NORTH SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
GENERAL FEELING IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ONLY MAKING A LIVING OF SORTS
DESPITE THE WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.

EX-BOHALE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A MID
LEVELS RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP GUIDANCE STILL OVERESTIMATE THE SYSTEM INTENSITY.THE
ECMWF MODEL REMAINS THE MOST MODERATE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. THE
CHOSEN SCENARIO IS THUS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF FORECAST, WITH THE
INTENSITY FLUCTUATING AROUND THE CURRENT LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AT THE FAR WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. FROM SATURDAY, THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD A
NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO BECOME MODERATE
THEN STRONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN UNDER
THIS UNFAVORABLE UPPER CONSTRAINT AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC CONTENT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20S. FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILL UP GRADUALLY.=

他的發展有機會脫水. 有望成為是2016南半球新風季.目前發展最看好的一個
他的巔峰和96W 有可能差不多都在這週.

MFR 00Z命名Bohale

** WTIO30 FMEE 110044 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  2  (BOHALE)

2.A POSITION 2015/12/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 69.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL
THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/11 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/12/12 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/12/12 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/12/13 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/12/14 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/15 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED WITHIN A
CURVED BAND LOCATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OF THE CENTER. 2200Z
37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WELL DEFINED WITH AN EYE NEARLY CLOSED. THANKS TO THIS DATA AND THE
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM HAS NAMED BOHALE AT 0000Z.

BOHALE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTSOUTHWARD, STEERED BY A MID LEVELS
RIDGE IN THE EAST AND AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP SPREAD HAS DECREASED WITH ANYWAY SOME DIFFERENCES OF
VELOCITY ALONG THIS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODELS.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TODAY, BOHALE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BENEFITING FROM THIS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
FROM SATURDAY, THE NORTWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD A NEW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO BECOME MODERATE THEN
STRONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT EXCEED THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
FROM SUNDAY EVOLVING SOUTH OF 20S, WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR
AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC CONTENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN.
FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILL UP
GRADUALLY.=

JTWC 06Z升格05S
MFR 00Z升格熱帶低壓，06Z維持30節評價。

** WTIO20 FMEE 100630 ***
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/12/2015
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 10/12/2015 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2  999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 70.4 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 450 IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS  EXTENDING
UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/12/10 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2015/12/11 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

JTWC22Z提升評級到Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
71.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 73.2E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081628Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED AN IMPROVED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN
THE CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH
MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF
LOW VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

MFR升格熱帶擾動，預計24小時內命名，巔峰上望40節。

** WTIO30 FMEE 090636 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  2

2.A POSITION 2015/12/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 72.0 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL
ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/09 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/10 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/12/10 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/12/11 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/12/11 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/12/12 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/13 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/12/14 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0

LAST NIGHT, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED AND ORGANIZED
INTO A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THE
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY DATA, THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION  APPEARS
MORE DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR. DURING THE LAST HOURS, A BURST OF CONVECTION HAPPENED
NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ANALYSIS.


THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. ALL NWP GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GRADUAL POLEWARDS
TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MORE OR LESS NEAR 70E.

THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS GOOD EQUATORWARDS UNTIL THURSDAY BUT
REMAINS GOOD ON THE TRADEWINDS SIDE. TONIGHT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SHOULD HAVE A 24 TO 36 HOURS PERIOD
OF LIGHT SHEAR BEFORE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DO NOT DEVELOP A STRONG SYSTEM
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SUGGESTING A TROPICAL STORM.=