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1817 赫克特 耗時兩周橫跨近百經度進西太 連續7天MH破紀錄

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[LV.3]偶爾看看II

孫悟空在妳頭上|2018-8-3 17:44 | 顯示全部樓層
t02436 發表於 2018-8-3 09:05
進入RI,21Z評價95節,巔峰上望C4,預期將以巔峰進入中太

有可能在六到七日後會侵襲夏威夷。

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抱歉,操作失誤  發表於 2018-8-5 12:34
字數未滿20字請善用點評功能唷,手機板的可用chrome瀏覽器跳電腦版就能點評囉  發表於 2018-8-5 11:53
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-8-4 07:52 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-8-4 07:58 編輯

昨天風眼填塞後,今天再次清空,進入第2次巔峰。
TXPZ21 KNES 031822
TCSENP

A.  10E (HECTOR)

B.  03/1800Z

C.  14.2N

D.  129.4W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  
T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...RAGGED OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B RING AND EMBEDDED IN LG
YIELDS E#=5.0. AND +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT=5.5. MET AND PT=5.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...VELASCO

20180803.2330.goes15.x.vis1km_high.10EHECTOR.90kts-975mb-141N-1293W.100pc.jpg rbtop-animated (2).gif


GFS 和EC 都看好10天後會進入西太。 gfs_mslp_pcpn_cpac_43.png ecmwf_uv850_vort_cpac_11.png

點評

確定會受太平洋高壓的引導影響,但目前影響區域還未定論  發表於 2018-8-5 16:41
10日報內都還走的慢吞吞  發表於 2018-8-5 16:40
日本如果又被這隻掃到就太衰了  發表於 2018-8-4 13:12
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-8-4 12:03 | 顯示全部樓層
霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-8-4 07:52
昨天風眼填塞後,今天再次清空,進入第2次巔峰。TXPZ21 KNES 031822
TCSENP

NHC 強度升三級颶風,預計2天後進入中太。
283
WTPZ45 KNHC 040235
TCDEP5

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Hector has continued to quickly strengthen since the last advisory,
with the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops in the
eyewall cooling to near -80C.  Satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB were 102 kt near 00Z, and given the increasing
organization since that time the initial intensity is increased to
105 kt.

The initial motion is now 275/10.  There is again little change to
the track forecast philosophy, as a large subtropical ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer Hector generally westward
during the forecast period.  Due to a weakness in the ridge, the
hurricane is forecast to gain some latitude from 36-96 h.  While the
guidance agrees with this scenario, there is a significant amount of
spread between the GFS and NAVGEM on the north side of the guidance
envelope and the UKMET and ECMWF on the south side.  The consensus
models are in the center of the envelope, and the new forecast is
close to these in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus.
The new forecast is little changed from the previous track.

Recent satellite microwave data show that Hector is developing an
outer eyewall, which suggests the hurricane should undergo an
eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so.  This makes it
a little unclear how long the current intensification will last.
The intensity forecast will show a little more strengthening during
the next 12 hr followed by little change in strength through 36 h.
The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models show a little more
intensification at 48-60 h, and the official forecast follows suit.
After that time, while Hector should remain in a light-shear,
warm-water environment, entrainment of drier air should lead to a
gradual weakening of the cyclone.  Overall, the new intensity
forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

There is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions
of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too
soon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could
occur.  This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For additional
information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii,
please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office
in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 14.2N 130.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 14.3N 132.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  05/0000Z 14.2N 134.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  06/0000Z 14.5N 139.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  07/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 16.5N 156.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

024412_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png avn_lalo-animated (2).gif

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2018-8-4 20:58 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS已經連2報預測將越過150E,離日本似乎又更了些...
記得2014金娜薇颱風也是從東太一路到達西太,但僅到了162E左右,還是締造了紀錄...
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_52.png
goes16_vis-swir_10E_201808041221.jpg


點評

持續觀察是否有機會成為跨入西太平洋的颶風  發表於 2018-8-5 16:42
1997.09年歐立瓦颱風越洋而來,就侵襲日本了  發表於 2018-8-5 11:53
若不計入中太形成,僅統計東太形成而跨越換日線的颶風,1986年8月的Georgette 維持颱風強度而在西太的極西點,曾來到北緯20度、東經152度附近(08150000Z), 當時正與另一颱風狄普(Tip)互旋中,之後減弱為T.D並被Tip  詳情 回復 發表於 2018-8-5 02:28
搞不好能挑戰C5 來個空降風王XDD 如果接下來高壓都這樣頹廢 還真的有可能  發表於 2018-8-5 01:20
如果跑來臺灣附近就破記錄了  詳情 回復 發表於 2018-8-5 00:53
看來這個颶風可能會跑到日本,成為第一個侵襲日本的颶風  發表於 2018-8-4 22:02
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[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-5 00:53 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
周子堯@FB 發表於 2018-8-4 20:58
GFS已經連2報預測將越過150E,離日本似乎又更了些...
記得2014金娜薇颱風也是從東太一路到達西太,但僅到了 ...

如果跑來臺灣附近就破記錄了

點評

字數未滿20字請善用點評功能唷,手機板的可用chrome瀏覽器跳電腦版就能點評囉  發表於 2018-8-5 11:54
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2018-8-5 02:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2018-8-5 04:05 編輯
周子堯@FB 發表於 2018-8-4 20:58
GFS已經連2報預測將越過150E,離日本似乎又更了些...
記得2014金娜薇颱風也是從東太一路到達西太,但僅到了 ...

若不計入中太形成,僅統計東太形成而跨越換日線的颶風,1986年8月的Georgette
維持颱風強度而在西太的極西點,曾來到北緯20度、東經152度附近(08150000Z),
當時正與另一颱風狄普(Tip)互旋中,之後減弱為T.D並被Tip併吞,此為一極特殊的
案例。若此次Hector能跨越換日線,就看它極西點能到何處了。至於中太形成的,
極西點則曾來到東經130度附近,印象中1997年的Oliwa、2015年的Halola都曾侵襲
日本。 Screenshots_2018-08-05-01-42-00.png

19860815_1.jpg

點評

喬吉特颱風當年越界,被新聞被當作怪事  發表於 2018-8-5 11:55

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +20 收起 理由
s6815711 + 20 太平洋颶風盃馬拉松正式開始

查看全部評分

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-8-5 10:55 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 強度升四級颶風,預計已經到達顛峰,24H後到達中太。
058
WTPZ45 KNHC 050239
TCDEP5

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018

Hector has the textbook appearance of a major hurricane in satellite
imagery this evening, as it is maintaining a well-defined 10 nm
wide eye inside a central dense overcast.  Satellite intensity
estimates are mostly near 115 kt, and based on these estimates that
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.  The most notable
change since the last advisory has been an increase in convection
in an outer band that now mostly surrounds the CDO.

The initial motion is 275/10.  There is little change to the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  A large subtropical
ridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally westward
through the forecast period, with Hector gradually gaining some
latitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the ridge.  By
72-96 h, most of the guidance shows a more westward motion south of
the Hawaiian Islands.  Based on slight shifts in the consensus
models, the new forecast track is nudged a little to the north of
the previous track through 72 h, and it is similar to the previous
track after that time.  It should be noted that there remains some
spread in the dynamical models as Hector approaches Hawaii, with
the NAVGEM, HWRF, and GFS to the north of the center of the
guidance envelope and the ECMWF to the south.

The recent increase in outer band convection decreases the short-
term chance that Hector will become an annular hurricane.  However,
the cyclone will be in the light-shear moderate-SST conditions
favorable for such an evolution, and it could occur later in the
forecast period.  Before this, it is likely that Hector will
undergo another eyewall replacement with associated fluctuations in
intensity.  After 36-48 h, the hurricane should start to encounter
a drier airmass and slowly weaken in consequence.  The new NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and it lies
at the upper end of the intensity guidance.

While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the
Hawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts
might occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long
time ranges.  This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian
Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For
additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in
Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast
Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 14.3N 134.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  05/1200Z 14.5N 136.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  06/0000Z 14.8N 138.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  06/1200Z 15.3N 141.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  07/0000Z 15.8N 144.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  09/0000Z 17.0N 156.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 17.5N 161.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
024058_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png 20180805.0231.goes15.ir.BD.10EHECTOR.110kts-957mb.jpg avn_lalo-animated (3).gif

點評

也有可能未來增強到一定的程度,脫離高壓的引導  發表於 2018-8-5 16:45
副高要連續十天維持在35N附近,才能到西太來  發表於 2018-8-5 12:54
希望能C5跑來西太  詳情 回復 發表於 2018-8-5 11:19
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[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-5 11:19 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-8-5 10:55
NHC 強度升四級颶風,預計已經到達顛峰,24H後到達中太。

希望能C5跑來西太

點評

字數未滿20字請善用點評功能唷,手機板的可用chrome瀏覽器跳電腦版就能點評囉  發表於 2018-8-5 11:57
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