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本帖最後由 Meow 於 2013-11-8 10:18 編輯
還是要貼海燕登陸後的首次報文，見證歷史。
台風第30号 (ハイエン)
平成25年11月08日09時45分 発表
<08日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 フィリピン
中心位置 北緯 11度00分(11.0度)
東経 124度50分(124.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西 35km/h(20kt)
中心気圧 895hPa
中心付近の最大風速 65m/s(125kt)
最大瞬間風速 90m/s(175kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 130km(70NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 北東側 440km(240NM)
南西側 280km(150NM)
<08日21時の予報>
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 スル海
予報円の中心 北緯 11度35分(11.6度)
東経 120度30分(120.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西 40km/h(21kt)
中心気圧 900hPa
中心付近の最大風速 60m/s(120kt)
最大瞬間風速 85m/s(170kt)
予報円の半径 90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 220km(120NM)
<09日09時の予報>
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 12度30分(12.5度)
東経 116度20分(116.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西 40km/h(21kt)
中心気圧 905hPa
中心付近の最大風速 60m/s(115kt)
最大瞬間風速 85m/s(165kt)
予報円の半径 140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 280km(150NM)
<10日09時の予報>
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 15度35分(15.6度)
東経 109度40分(109.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧 920hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(105kt)
最大瞬間風速 75m/s(150kt)
予報円の半径 260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 410km(220NM)
<11日09時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 ラオス
予報円の中心 北緯 18度00分(18.0度)
東経 105度05分(105.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 950hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径 390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 520km(280NM)
WTPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 11.0N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.8N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.7N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.1N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.2N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.2N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 123.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
WDPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS THE NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS PERSISTED BUT
IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE
ITSELF HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE
ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
FOR ALL AGENCIES TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL OBSERVED IN EIR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 160 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5 KNOTS),
ALLOWING GOOD VERTICAL TRANSPORT AND IS SUPPORTING THE RECENT
INTENSITY INCREASES OBSERVED IN EIR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND 72. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PHILIPPINES AND A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LEAD TO INTENSITIES DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOW AT FIRST
AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL TO GOOD THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
BE AMPLIFIED BY GREATER LAND INTERACTION AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE
SSTS NEAR THE COAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, AND
WILL CAUSE A MORE AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM THROUGH TAU 96, SHIFTING TO A
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA, AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE TRACK OVER LAND WILL
CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING AS FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS INCREASE AND
GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IMPACTS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU
120. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN |
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