Typhoon

97W低氣壓和98W低氣壓之間的中心距離似乎沒有非常靠近

正宜27

jtwc升評為MEDIUM

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 159.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYTEM AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

王靜傑

該不會相13號颱風吧！

mondeo

正宜27

JMA預測48小時後增強為T.D

正宜27

jtwc評級LOW

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0N 158.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF BROAD MID-LEVEL
TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGHING THAT IS BEING ENHANCED
BY A STRONG 20 TO 30 KNOT WESTERLY WIND SURGE ALONG THE EQUATOR.
AN 111626Z MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS THE LARGE AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

ktf

manhg

話說GFS昨天的預測還跟EC不同,沒想到今天晚上就翻口供了...只不過時間還很久,也只能靜觀其變,但小弟不才,倘若97跟98W一同形成,以EC預測圖看來距離滿接近的,是否會產生藤原效應?