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hokjar1212|2020-9-3 17:20
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本帖最後由 hokjar1212 於 2020-9-3 17:21 編輯
JTWC 發佈 FW
WTPN31 PGTW 022100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 024A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 024A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 35.5N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.5N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 41.2N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 45.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 128.9E.
02SEP20. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 24 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 021748Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS ERODING CORE CONVECTION WITH EXPANSIVE
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
TY 10W MADE LANDFALL AT 02/17Z ABOUT 12NM WEST OF BUSAN, WHICH
REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 75 KNOTS. THESE WIND REPORTS SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS, WHICH IS ALSO BOLSTERED BY THE RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T4.0/5.0 (65/90 KNOTS). TY 10W IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
INDICATES A CYCLONICALLY SHAPED FORECAST TRACK AS THE SYSTEM
OCCLUDES OVER MANCHURIA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS A
STORM-FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW OVER NORTH KOREA AND MANCHURIA. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED SUBJECT LINE WITH SYSTEM
INFORMATION.//
NNNN
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