11P.Oswald 對流在外陸上神奇裸奔中＊

阿隆 · 2013-1-26 17:59

中心(23.5S-148.7E)一直賴在陸地久了開始呈現裸露(下圖對流西北方)----前景看衰評價就被取消了!

目前的活路是:中心儘快旋位於入東南或西北的對流雲系重新引爆,還有一定要儘早出海因為若一直待在陸上真的一點都沒搞頭:Q

麻友飯 · 2013-1-25 13:44

從下圖可見
Oswald的頑強生命力
風力一直能維持在40kts左右
稍後若有機會出海有良好底層結構要再恢復一定強度難度不高
還有我真的很好奇澳洲東部平原有什麼秘密使Oswald維持良好底層結構?:D

阿隆 · 2013-1-25 12:50

在陸上的底層對流不僅沒消退,真神奇~居然可以變出類似眼牆的形態:lol

但最酷的還是上午強度已回到30kts(目前評價至少可以hold住了)

阿隆 · 2013-1-24 23:58

中心就很神奇的沿東岸往下掉中......
評價沒變對流沒減唯一往不利發展的是緯度漸高,未來二天中心若還是無法完全出海優勢將全失:curse:

阿隆 · 2013-1-23 21:37

jwpk9899 · 2013-1-23 15:23

評級又升
到了MEDIUM囉~
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN A 222312Z TRMM IMAGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 222341Z
SHOWS STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CAPE
YORK PENINSULA DESPITE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC, WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE POSITIONED OVER LAND, ONLY SHOWING 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SYSTEM GIVING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A TRACK
OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED STRUCTURE, UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.