簽到天數: 3290 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-6-9 21:26
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-6-9 21:29 編輯
JTWC發佈TCFA
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 67.8E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE
IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA, AT 31
DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
環流相當廣泛
渦度也逐漸泛白
德法分析T1.5端看IMD有無動作了
TPIO10 PGTW 091218
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95A (W OF INDIA)
B. 09/1130Z
C. 13.5N
D. 68.2E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT AND MET IS UNAVAILABLE.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
CHAPPOTIN
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