麻友飯

  熱帶風暴  
   編號：04 L    
   名稱：Dorian

  基本資料   
　擾動編號日期：2013 年 07 月 22 日 02  時
　命名日期　　：2013 年 07 月 23 日 02 時
　消散日期　　：2013 年 08 月 04 日 08 時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國國家颶風中心 (NHC)：   50   kts  (   等級   )
    海平面最低氣壓 　　　   ：1002 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無
殘餘之91L傳送點

12.7N 17.1W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

jwpk9899

評級升到了MEDIUM囉
機率30% 報文上似乎說現在的環境有利發展
但1天候環境可能稍微轉差(應該吧...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

testqk

好網站~要天天來報到了~
不然每次颱風來都手忙腳亂地準備觀測設備....

krichard2011

似乎已經發TCFA了
NHC的評價也已經來到HIGH
不過我不太認為這種樣子可以TCFA
底層還是要加強...
不過至少結構有內縮起來了

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
   
2. SYSTEM LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
   
3. CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION.  AN
   
4. INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT AND ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM
   
5. ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
   
6. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS LESS
   
7. CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
   
8. CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
   
9. NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

複製代碼

tsewaichak

這塊感覺還一般般啊...
看了水氣圖，發現前面有一大個乾區，
要生存可不是那麼容易的事呢。

krichard2011

升格04L經過一場小爆發後 結構明顯轉好
看起來是個小鋼砲一個

krichard2011

中間那個洞想幹嘛 0.0
總體來說CDO已經在建立中
底層風眼也似乎有開始形成的趨勢
可能因為它環流小 整合非常迅速
不排除未來有意想不到的發展

马鞍二世

他死了，Good bye！:)他变成了热带波，持续减弱


...DORIAN DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
5:00 PM AST Sat Jul 27
Location: 18.9°N 54.7°W
Moving: W at 24 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph