簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-3-18 15:42
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-3-18 15:53 編輯
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IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0646 UTC 18/03/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 149.0E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [297 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 977 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [15 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 18/1200: 15.0S 148.7E: 020 [040]: 070 [130]: 973
+12: 18/1800: 15.1S 148.2E: 035 [060]: 075 [140]: 970
+18: 19/0000: 15.1S 147.7E: 045 [085]: 080 [150]: 966
+24: 19/0600: 15.3S 147.0E: 060 [105]: 085 [155]: 962
+36: 19/1800: 15.3S 145.3E: 070 [130]: 090 [165]: 958
+48: 20/0600: 15.2S 143.4E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 995
+60: 20/1800: 14.8S 141.3E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 1004
+72: 21/0600: 14.3S 139.6E: 120 [220]: 030 [060]: 1002
+96: 22/0600: 13.1S 137.2E: 180 [335]: 050 [090]: 992
+120: 23/0600: 12.9S 135.3E: 270 [495]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Nathan has significantly developed today with the system
now more symmetric in appearance and in recent satellite imagery a ragged eye
has emerged. The development overnight and during today has been attributed to
the noticeably lower shear across the system, which is evident on the recent
satellite imagery and also depicted by a zone of less than 10 knot shear on the
CIMMS vertical wind shear product.
The latest Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern with a DG surround and no
adjustment, giving a DT of 4.5. MET and PAT were both 4.5. FT based on a 3-hour
averaged DT. The location of the centre is rated as good based on the Willis
Island radar and the emerging eye on the satellite imagery.
Severe tropical cyclone Nathan was moving in a general southwestwards direction
overnight, but has adopted more of a westwards track today as it begins to be
steered by a mid-level ridge extending across central Australia. Confidence in
the system holding this westwards track into the north Queensland coast is
fairly high considering the strength of the mid-level ridge and the fact that
most of the computer model guidance have tropical cyclone Nathan crossing the
coast somewhere between Cape Melville and Port Douglas during Friday morning.
After crossing the coast, tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to continue moving
in a westwards direction and possibly re-emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria by
Saturday.
Given the favourable environment for further development into the north
Queensland coast it is possible that a period of rapid intensification could
occur and that the system could reach category 4 intensity prior to landfall.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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