周子堯@FB

TCFA

陳約禮@FB

JTWC14Z發TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 111400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 146.6E TO 14.0N 140.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 146.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
147.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INTENSIFIED CONVECTION. A 111125Z METOP-
A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LLCC. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED WITH EVIDENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY IN THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM ANDERSEN AFB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
FAIR OUTFLOW BUT WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY THE OUTFLOW OF TY 16W. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER 90W PASSES THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121400Z.
//
NNNN

r96340

這會不會有被莫蘭蒂吃掉的可能？像90W這種位在路徑附近的弱小風暴感覺會被吞掉…

asus5635

JTWC 06Z評級MEDIUM

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 162.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 161.7E, APPROXIMATELY
85 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UJELANG, MARSHALL ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER. A 082233Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THEN NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE DEFINED LLCC WITH AN EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.