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15L.Nicole 初期路徑迂迴 長達兩周生命史 高緯爆發上C4

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    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2016-10-2 14:07

正文摘要:

  四級颶風   編號:15 L 名稱:Nicole 以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 發表於 2016-10-17 00:55
命名進入第12天,來到北緯40度,仍然是一個一級颶風的熱帶氣旋。
000
WTNT45 KNHC 161456
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016

Nicole appears to be maintaining its strength this morning. The
satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly better organized
than several hours ago. A large ragged eye of the cyclone is still
evident in visible satellite images, surrounded by patches of cold
cloud tops.  The initial wind speed is held at 75 kt, which is a
little higher than the latest Dvorak estimates. Although Nicole is
over 24 deg C SSTs and is headed for even colder waters during the
next day or two, there should be enough instability for the
continuation of some deep convection near the center of the cyclone.

Therefore, only slow weakening is expected before Nicole completes
the transition to an extratropical cyclone in about two days when it
is absorbed by an upper-level trough.

Nicole is moving slowly east-southeastward as the hurricane is now
largely cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow.  A slow
northeastward motion is expected later today and tonight, followed
by an acceleration to the north-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The expected turn and increase in forward speed are due to the
approach of the aforementioned large upper-level trough that is
currently located over eastern Canada. The track models are in
relatively good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is a little
slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the
latest consensus aids.

The initial wind radii were adjusted based on a 1230 UTC ASCAT-B
pass. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) was used
for the forecast wind radii.

The primary hazard associated with Nicole will be high seas.  Recent
wave-height altimeter data indicate that a large area of 20-ft seas
exist near the hurricane.  In addition, swells from Nicole are
spreading far from the system, and High Seas Forecasts from OPC
and TAFB suggest that long-period swells will continue to radiate
outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next
few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 39.1N  46.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  17/0000Z 39.5N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  17/1200Z 41.0N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  18/0000Z 43.8N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  18/1200Z 48.5N  38.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  19/1200Z 58.6N  35.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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即將離開海溫25度的海域,但NHC認為仍可以維持深對流,預估還有48小時才會轉化。
1.track.current.png

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jwpk9899 發表於 2016-10-13 11:41
鋒頭實在都被西太的TD搶光光  連上C4了都沒人發現呀 at201615.gif

20161013.0315.goes-13.ir.15L.NICOLE.115kts.954mb.29.6N.66.5W.100pc.jpg

蜜露 發表於 2016-10-13 09:33

稍早實測出了955hPa

升格Cat.3  105kts

有點像桑達.   只是桑達在西太平洋 , 妮可在北大西洋 .

recon_AF309-0315A-NICOLE.png

recon_AF309-0315A-NICOLE_timeseries.png



Cat.4 也是有可能 ...





... 發表於 2016-10-13 06:56
1013 0630 NICOLE.jpg 風眼清晰開出 NHC評價95kts

並預計12hr後達到顛峰 平均風預期100kts

或許有機會一搏MH
t02436 發表於 2016-10-12 02:08
風眼又捲出來了
NHC#30A報評價65節,重回颶風。
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
200 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR
BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 66.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

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第一次飛機實測進行中,第一次穿心完成
recon_AF303-0115A-NICOLE.png

recon_AF303-0115A-NICOLE_timeseries.png

目前預測將以85節強度從百慕達西方外海通過
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 27.3N  65.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 27.7N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 28.6N  66.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 30.2N  66.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 32.2N  65.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  14/1200Z 36.8N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  15/1200Z 40.5N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/1200Z 41.8N  53.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

20161011.1715.goes-13.ircolor.15L.NICOLE.55kts.990mb.27.1N.65.8W.100pc.jpg

t02436 發表於 2016-10-7 13:44
的確超乎預期,03Z站上90節,C2達成,只不過風眼已經填塞,NHC預測將開始減弱,但五天後將有機會重回颶風級別。
000
WTNT45 KNHC 070241
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole has rapidly intensified during the day, with a pinhole eye
apparent in satellite and microwave imagery.  Although the eye has
recently become obscured, Dvorak satellite estimates support an
initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.  All of the guidance
suggests that the shear near Nicole should increase during the next
couple of days since the tropical cyclone will be in an environment
of increasingly strong upper-level northerly winds.  Thus Nicole
is probably near its peak intensity, and slow weakening is forecast
from Friday through the weekend.  The large-scale environment
could become more conducive for re-intensification by days 4 or 5,
and some restrengthening is shown around that time.  The new
intensity forecast is very close to the previous one, slightly above
the model consensus.

Nicole has moved very little during the past several hours.  The
hurricane will likely begin to drift southward by tomorrow
afternoon due to steering from the western side of a mid-level
trough.  Thereafter, Nicole could gradually turn toward the
southwest, west, and northwest over the next few days around a
ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean.  There is better agreement in
the guidance than yesterday, although the ECMWF remains a bit of an
outlier solution to the east.  Since a stronger system would likely
respond more to the deep-layer northerly flow, the new NHC track is
shifted a bit to the south of the previous forecast in a couple of
days, but ends up close to the last NHC advisory by day 5.

A climate note:  This is the first time since September 10, 1964
that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W.  Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions
as Matthew and Nicole are now.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 27.4N  65.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  07/1200Z 27.3N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  08/0000Z 26.8N  65.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  08/1200Z 26.1N  64.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  09/0000Z 25.5N  64.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  10/0000Z 26.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  11/0000Z 27.5N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 29.0N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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t02436 發表於 2016-10-7 01:08
發展算超乎預期,目前已經到60節,或許有機會看到北大藤原大戲。
000
WTNT45 KNHC 061435
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since the last advisory,
and consists of a ragged CDO with some banding features over the
southeastern portion of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is
restricted over the northern semicircle of the storm.  Dvorak
classifications are unchanged from SAB and TAFB, yielding intensity
estimates of 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, so the advisory
intensity is held at 60 kt.  Although Nicole could reach hurricane
strength today, increasing north-northwesterly shear should lead to
a slow weakening trend, beginning tomorrow.  The official intensity
forecast is a blend of the latest LGEM and SHIPS guidance.

The forward motion is slowing, and the motion is now estimated to
be about 325/5 kt.  A mid-level high pressure area to the northeast
of Nicole should quickly collapse while a shortwave trough drops
southward into the area.  This will leave the tropical cyclone in
weak steering currents within the next day or so.  A high pressure
area is forecast to build to the west and northwest of Nicole
during the next couple of days, and this should force some
southward component of motion.  Overall, however, the official
forecast, like the previous one, shows little overall motion
throughout the period.  This is in reasonable agreement with the
dynamical model consensus.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting
Bermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the
next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 26.8N  64.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 27.5N  65.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 27.8N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 27.3N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 26.9N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 27.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 28.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

143547W_sm.gif

底層眼可能差不多完成了,可見光開始隱約看的到風眼,還是有機會叩關C1
20161006.1149.f18.91pct91h91v.15L.NICOLE.60kts.995mb.26.6N.64.7W.075pc.jpg

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