簽到天數: 3290 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2016-10-9 14:35
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JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5N
149.5E,APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN, AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MODERATE OUTFLOW AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OVERALL A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KNOTS). MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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