W環

JTWC: LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N
149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202014Z SSMIS 91GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN
TO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST GRADUAL ORGANIZATION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.