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09L.Harvey 二次登陸 德州雨量破紀錄

簽到天數: 2103 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2017-8-22 08:34 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC評級再次調到High~
1. A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png

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霧峰追風者|2017-8-18 07:30 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-8-18 07:33 編輯

NHC 命名"Harvey",巔峰暫上望60Kts,穩定西移。
000
WTNT44 KNHC 172048
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined
circulation in the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles,
with the center near a cluster of sheared, but strong, convection.
The aircraft data suggest that the maximum winds are near 35 kt
and that the central pressure is near 1004 mb.  Based on these
data, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey.

The initial motion is 270/16.  There is no change to the forecast
philosophy since the previous advisory.  A deep-layer ridge to the
north of the system should steer it quickly just north of due west
through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the
system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea in 12-24 h, into the central Caribbean by 48-72 h, and to the
western Caribbean by 96-120 h.  One adjustment is that the 96-120 h
points have been nudged a little southward in response to a shift in
the guidance, and thus now lie closer to Central America than on
the previous forecast.  The forecast track again lies near the
center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and the various
consensus models.

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through at least 72 h.  The conflicting forecast scenarios
alluded to in the previous advisory remain, with the SHIPS and
LGEM models still showing steady intensification while the GFS and
ECMWF models still forecast degeneration to an easterly wave over
the central Caribbean.  The new intensity forecast again follows the
trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it remains on the low side of
the guidance envelope out of respect for the GFS/ECMWF. The 96-120 h
intensities have been decreased a little due to the forecast track
showing more land interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.0N  55.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  18/0600Z 13.1N  58.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  18/1800Z 13.4N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  19/0600Z 13.7N  65.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  19/1800Z 14.0N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  20/1800Z 14.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  21/1800Z 15.5N  83.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 17.0N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

205349_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png rb-animated (2).gif


點評

發展不順,將持續西進,強度25kts.1007hpa  發表於 2017-8-21 12:44
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霧峰追風者|2017-8-17 23:49 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-8-17 23:56 編輯

nhc 升格"潛在熱帶氣旋09L",穩定西移。
000
WTNT44 KNHC 171440
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

Satellite imagery, including experimental 1-minute data from
GOES-16, indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area
east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming better defined, and that a
cluster of strong convection has formed just west of the center.
Based on this and the potential for the system to become a tropical
storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, advisories are being
initiated as a potential tropical cyclone.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon, and it is likely the aircraft will find a tropical
cyclone has formed.

The initial motion is 270/15.  A deep-layer ridge to the north of
the system should steer it generally just north of due west through
the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system
through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in
24-36 h, into the central Caribbean by 72 h, and to the western
Caribbean by 96-120 h.  The forecast track lies near the center of
the tightly clustered guidance envelope and lies near the various
consensus models.

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through the forecast period.  This seems favorable for
strengthening, and the SHIPS and LGEM models show slow, but steady,
intensification.  However, the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the
system to degenerate to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean
Sea, possibly due to dry air entrainment.  The intensity forecast
follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it respects the
GFS/ECMWF forecasts by being on the low side of the intensity
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 13.1N  54.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  18/0000Z 13.1N  56.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H  18/1200Z 13.2N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  19/0000Z 13.5N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  19/1200Z 13.9N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  20/1200Z 14.5N  74.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  21/1200Z 15.5N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 17.0N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

144536_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png rgb-animated (6).gif rbtop-animated (12).gif

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霧峰追風者|2017-8-17 09:11 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升至50%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
a little more concentrated this afternoon.  Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_atl_2d1 (3).png rbtop-animated (11).gif

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-8-14 08:37 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望10%。
1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave.  These systems are
forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
two_atl_2d1 (2).png

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