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22W JMA:TD 登陸越南

簽到天數: 206 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

2017-9-20 21:52 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-9-26 06:44 編輯

  熱帶低壓  
編號:22 W
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 09 20 21
升格熱低日期:2017 09 23 08
撤編日期  :2017 09 00 00
登陸地點  :中國 海南省 萬寧市
       越南 海防市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
中央氣象台(CMA):16 m/s( TD )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):30 kts
海平面最低氣壓998 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90W-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-8.7N-134.1E

20170920.1310.himawari-8.ir.90W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8.7N.134.1E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 206 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-9-21 06:37 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FEEDER BANDS
WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST.  THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
CURRENTLY GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.



點評

強度幾乎不變,氣壓是1009hpa,給予low評級  發表於 2017-9-22 22:54
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[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-9-23 10:29 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-9-23 10:51 編輯

JMA 09時升格"熱帶低壓",進入南海整合發展。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 15N 119E WNW SLOWLY.



17092309.png 20170923.0150.himawari-8.ircolor.90W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.16.4N.120.3E.100pc.jpg


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

周子堯@FB|2017-9-23 11:16 | 顯示全部樓層

CWB八時也跟進升格為TD,但定位稍有落差~
2017-0923-0000_SFCcombo.jpg

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif




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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-23 14:02 | 顯示全部樓層
評級提升到Medium
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 128.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 230157Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND WEAK, SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
WITH BROAD EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD HAINAN
ISLAND WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

se2_b03_0540.jpg

90W_gefs_latest.png

點評

強度上看45kts.991hpa.也就是輕度颱風23m/s.  發表於 2017-9-23 23:55
好像會直衝越南,強度上看輕度颱風18m/s。  發表於 2017-9-23 16:12
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-23 23:47 | 顯示全部樓層
發布TCFA。
wp9017.gif

LATEST.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-9-24 08:46 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z升格22W,移動速度很快,預計下午就會登陸海南島。
WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231451ZSEP2017/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 113.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 113.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 19.4N 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 20.4N 108.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 21.6N 106.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 22.8N 105.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 113.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
THIS CANCLES AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 231500).
//
NNNN
wp2217.gif rgb-animated (9).gif rbtop-animated (16).gif


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[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2017-9-24 10:46 | 顯示全部樓層

JMA:TD[W]
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 18.6N 113.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
17092409.png

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