霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z評級"MEDIUM"

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.0N 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER
LUZON. THIS MID TO UPPER-LEVEL STRUCTURE WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED
WITH INVEST 95W AND APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC AND MOVING
EXPEDITIOUSLY WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINES. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WITH A 071316Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE INDICATE A TROPICAL
WAVE FORMING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS, WITH ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS
FROM A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS LIGHT VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY RESOLVING THE DISTURBANCE VERY WELL
AT THIS TIME, SHOWING SLOW TO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT  OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.