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1721 蘭恩 登陸日本靜岡縣 轉化溫氣

簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-10-11 19:09 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈颱風  
編號:1721 ( 25 W )
名稱:蘭恩 ( Lan )

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 10 11 18
升格熱低日期:2017 10 15 03
命名日期  :2017 10 16 02
撤編日期  :2017 10 23 14
登陸地點  :日本 靜岡縣 御前崎市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):53 m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :50 m/s ( 95 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):135 kts ( Cat.4 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:920 百帕
七級風半徑  :330 公里
十級風半徑  :100 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
91W-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-7N-150E

20171011.1040.himawari-8.ir.91W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.7N.150E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

請盡速補圖。  發表於 2017-10-11 19:10

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
t02436 + 10 缺圖,定位錯誤

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簽到天數: 1799 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-10-13 22:51 | 顯示全部樓層
直接評級Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 131142Z SCATSAT IMAGE SHOWS A SHARP INVERTED TROUGH,
HOWEVER, A 131202Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING LLCC
WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
SST VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND DECREASING VWS OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

91W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

周子堯@FB|2017-10-14 11:08 | 顯示全部樓層
發布TCFA
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. A 132112Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

wp912017.20171014063157.gif

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
asus5635 + 15 即時消息

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簽到天數: 160 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2017-10-14 11:52 | 顯示全部樓層
數值預報對這隻好像滿有興趣
袃卡努還沒出來之前這隻就一直被數值預測會出現
強度與路徑也還滿被看好
101000Z
101012Z
101100Z
101112Z
101200Z
101212Z

101300Z
101312Z

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簽到天數: 128 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

Jimmy|2017-10-14 23:28 | 顯示全部樓層
系集一致報出北轉路徑...
看來到時候西風帶向南移的確難再有颱風靠近了吧...
esrl.eps.ncep.hit.loop.91W.2017.2017101406.gif
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簽到天數: 1667 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-10-14 23:53 | 顯示全部樓層
151511.png

EC 101400Z系集
EC過去幾報看似變動不大,但小成員看法頗分歧
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簽到天數: 392 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-10-15 06:08 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 03時升格熱帶低壓
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 139E WEST SLOWLY.
17101503.png 20171014.2130.himawari-8.ircolor.91W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.7.6N.138.1E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

ha093405|2017-10-15 11:25 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS的預測,颱風北上過程,順勢將大陸高氣壓往南帶下來,台灣可能會感受到比較明顯的秋涼。
chart.jpg
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