B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N
111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM WEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED AND ILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 260216Z AMSU METOP-A 89GZ
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH WEAK OUTFLOW. AT THIS TIME GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME ANALYZING THE DISTURANCE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
