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1724 海葵 環境惡劣 於南海北部減弱消散

簽到天數: 181 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

2017-11-8 08:03 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:1724 ( 30 W )
名稱:海葵 ( Haikui )

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 11 08 07
升格熱低日期:2017 11 09 03
命名日期  :2017 11 09 20
停編日期  :2017 11 12 14
登陸地點  :菲律賓 中部群島 - 熱帶低壓時期

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):20 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :20 m/s ( 40 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):45 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:998 百帕
七級風半徑  : 80  公里
十級風半徑  :---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
99W-INVEST-15kts-1005mb-10.7N-130.8E

20171107.2320.himawari-8.ir.99W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.10.7N.130.8E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
t02436 + 15

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簽到天數: 181 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-11-8 08:42 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 預測9日21時有機會升格熱帶低壓。
17110921.png
CWB 預估10日也有機會發展為颱風。
cwb天氣圖.png

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簽到天數: 181 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-11-8 10:08 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 01Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 130.N 99W,
APPROXIMATELY 575 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BELOW AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MTSAT 850MB RELATIVE VORTICITY PRODUCT
REVEALS A MODERATE POSITIVE VORTICITY ENVIORNMENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIORNMENT IS CHARATERIZED BY AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE 5-10 KNOT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
28-30 DEGREES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


abpwsair (7).jpg 20171108.0120.himawari-8.ircolor.99W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.10.7N.130.8E.100pc.jpg


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簽到天數: 1603 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-11-8 13:55 | 顯示全部樓層

wgmsdlm3.GIF

副高目前呈現東西向,引導99W西行通過菲律賓中部
而隨著北方槽線一波接一波東移,
高壓勢力減弱,但也略往南調整,99W偏北份量也會增加
進入南海後的動向可以多注意

wgmssht.GIF

風切稍強
通過菲律賓進入南海後環境或許會好些
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[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-11-9 03:39 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-11-9 06:23 編輯

JTWC 19Z直接發佈TCFA,快速發展中。
WTPN21 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 126.0E TO 14.8N 117.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 125.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 130.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.6E, 313 NM ESE OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION COVERING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 080910Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
DISTURBANCE, AND LOOSE ORGANIZATION AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 081307Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION INDICATED CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING, WITH WINDS 5-10
KNOTS IN THE SE QUADRANT AND AN ISOLATED REGION OF 20 KT WINDS IN
THE NE QUADRANT, THOUGH SOME WIND BARBS ARE FLAGGED FOR
CONTAMINATION. A RADAR MOSAIC FROM PAGASA SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, CLEAR ROTATION, AND FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A SOMEWHAT RAGGED CENTER CLEAR OF CONVECTION. 99W IS
CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH SHEAR VALUES INCREASING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH.
WIND SHEAR IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, TOWARDS WHICH 99W IS PROPAGATING,
IS ALSO LOW. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS IMPROVED. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). HOWEVER, LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES MAY INHIBIT NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY AND STORM MOTION OF
99W, WITH GFS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC AND PREDICTING 99W REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING THE PHILIPPINES IN
APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS. OTHER MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT IN LATER
TAUS, OR DO NOT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION AT ALL, AFTER 99W TRACKS
OVER THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091930Z.
//
wp992017.20171108194757.gif
avn-animated (2).gif

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[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-11-9 06:04 | 顯示全部樓層
CWB 率先升格熱帶低壓。
三、熱帶性低氣壓1002百帕,在北緯12度,東經1
25.5度,即在菲律賓東方海面,向西移動,時速25公里
I04_small.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-11-9 11:02 | 顯示全部樓層
30W #01
wp3017.gif

JMA:TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 125E WEST SLOWLY.

17110909.png

20171109.0220.himawari-8.vis.30W.THIRTY.25kts.1002mb.12.8N.124.4E.100pc.jpg

點評

今年秋颱都沒什麼爆點很容易預測,中國即將迎接今年第11個颱風及海南第4颱  發表於 2017-11-9 12:33
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-11-9 15:18 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA發布GW
熱帯低気圧
平成29年11月09日16時15分 発表

<09日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピン
中心位置        北緯 12度55分(12.9度)
東経 122度50分(122.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<10日03時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 13度55分(13.9度)
東経 120度10分(120.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<10日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
東経 117度30分(117.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

JMA_TD-a_11-09_06Z.png

20171109.0640.himawari-8.ircolor.30W.THIRTY.30kts.1002mb.13.3N.122.6E.100pc.jpg
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