霧峰追風者

TPXS11 PGTW 251819
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96S (SW OF SUMATRA)
B. 25/1800Z
C. 7.01S
D. 92.76E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   BERMEA

TXXS29 KNES 251852
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96S)
B.  25/1730Z
C.  6.4S
D.  92.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN. CIRCULAR LL CLOUDS AND A CENTER NEAR TO A
SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET IS 1.5 AND PT
IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RAMIREZ

霧峰追風者

BMKG 12Z升格熱帶低壓，並開始發報。

SITUATION
At 12:00 UTC Tropical Depression TD96S 1005 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 5,8 S 93,4 E moving southwest at 10 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 20 knots expected to increase to 25 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

00:00 UTC 26 November:  Within 60 nautical miles of 6,6 S 92,5 E
                        Central pressure 1003 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 20 knots near centre.
12:00 UTC 26 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 7,3 S 91,4 E
                        Central pressure 1002 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 25 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 19:00 UTC 25 November 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

周子堯@FB

JTWC 13z評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.2S 93.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 391
NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY COVERED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250951Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING AND THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 250341Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND AN
ISOLATED AREA OF 25 KNOT WINDS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS STRENGTHENED,
ENHANCING CONVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STIFLING DEVELOPMENT, AND VWS VALUES
INCREASE SHARPLY TO THE WEST. WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE, WITH A TIGHT SST GRADIENT TOWARDS
LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. SOME MODELS PORTRAY NEAR-TERM
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, WHILE OTHERS PROJECT INTENSIFICATION IN THE
LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
4.2S 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 522 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH OVERALL BROAD MIDLEVEL TURNING. A 231518Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE
FURTHER REVEALS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, HIGH (25-30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH WITH AN UNLIKELY CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.