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98P 南太首擾

簽到天數: 206 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

2017-12-1 22:39 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-12-6 21:51 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :98 P
擾動編號日期:
2017 12 01 22
撤編日期  :2017 12 05 09
98P.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.6S.160E

20171201.1410.himawari-8.ir.98P.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.6S.160E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 206 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-12-2 14:54 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 05Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5S
161.9E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 020455Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE BROAD AREA OF MIDLEVEL TURNING WITH NO DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
98P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SURROUNDING AREA. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT 98P HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU
36 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (1).jpg 20171202.0620.himawari-8.ircolor.98P.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.7.8S.161E.100pc.jpg


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風切太強,不易發展,評級very low.  發表於 2017-12-2 14:58
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簽到天數: 206 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-12-4 14:35 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 05Z取消評級
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.4S 157.8E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair (2).jpg 20171204.0550.himawari-8.ir.98P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.12.3S.162.2E.100pc.jpg

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