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95W 低緯擾動

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[LV.7]常住居民III

2017-12-4 13:20 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-7 04:57 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :95 W
擾動編號日期:2017 12 04 13
撤編日期  :2017 12 06 21
95W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.1.5N.153.3E


20171203.1607.f15.37h.95W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.1.5N.153.3E.050pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15

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簽到天數: 206 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-12-4 14:41 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-4 14:50 編輯

GFS 還是看好未來有所發展。
gfs198h.png gfs_mslp_wind_95W_34.png.png 71.phase1.png

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[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-12-5 07:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-5 07:15 編輯

JTWC 20Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
1.7N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 817 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AN ELONGATED
SHEAR LINE BETWEEN AN EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST AND TRADE
EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH, AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL TURNING. A 041457Z
AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND 041714Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATE RESURGENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 041130Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALED TIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH MOSTLY 10 KNOT WINDS, THOUGH WIND
BARBS ARE RAIN FLAGGED UNDER THE AREA OF DEEPEST CONVECTION. 95W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KT) WIND SHEAR. THERE
IS MINIMAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF 95W, BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT EXISTS FURTHER TO THE WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS), FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED SO CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR, BUT AS 95W IS
ADVECTED FURTHER NORTHWEST, IT WILL GAIN PLANETARY VORTICITY. THE
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION IS ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY OF 95W,
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF TC FORMATION. GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair (3).jpg 20171204.2230.himawari-8.ircolor.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.1.7N.152E.100pc.jpg 95W_gefs_latest.png


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[LV.7]常住居民III

霧峰追風者|2017-12-6 13:42 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 05Z取消評級...
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.7N 151.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair (4).jpg

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