(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.7N 151.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
1.7N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 817 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AN ELONGATED
SHEAR LINE BETWEEN AN EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST AND TRADE
EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH, AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL TURNING. A 041457Z
AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND 041714Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATE RESURGENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 041130Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALED TIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH MOSTLY 10 KNOT WINDS, THOUGH WIND
BARBS ARE RAIN FLAGGED UNDER THE AREA OF DEEPEST CONVECTION. 95W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KT) WIND SHEAR. THERE
IS MINIMAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF 95W, BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT EXISTS FURTHER TO THE WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS), FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED SO CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR, BUT AS 95W IS
ADVECTED FURTHER NORTHWEST, IT WILL GAIN PLANETARY VORTICITY. THE
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION IS ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY OF 95W,
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF TC FORMATION. GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
提升卡
千斤頂
