霧峰追風者

BoM 升格帶熱低壓，並開始發報，有機會在登陸前命名，巔峰暫時上望澳式C2。

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 8:50 am WST on Tuesday 26 December 2017

Headline:
Developing tropical low may bring gales to the west Kimberley coast from as early as Wednesday night.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Beagle Bay to Whim Creek, including Broome and Port Hedland.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 165 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 122.5 degrees East, estimated to be 430 kilometres north of Broome and 375 kilometres north northwest of Derby.

Movement: slow moving.

A low is developing off the west Kimberley coast. The low is likely to form into a tropical cyclone later on Wednesday as it moves towards the south southwest.

Hazards:
Gales may occur along the coast from Beagle Bay to Broome as early as Wednesday evening, or more likely on Thursday morning. Gales may extend down the coast during Thursday as the system approaches the east Pilbara coast. Gales are possible at Port Hedland on Thursday night if the system takes a more westerly track.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Cape Leveque to Wallal need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Tuesday 26 December.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

Details:
         Time (AWST)        Intensity Category        Latitude
(decimal deg.)        Longitude
(decimal deg.)        Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr        8 am December 26        tropical low        14.1S        122.5E        165
+6hr        2 pm December 26        tropical low        14.8S        122.3E        425
+12hr        8 pm December 26        tropical low        15.5S        122.1E        400
+18hr        2 am December 27        tropical low        16.0S        121.9E        275
+24hr        8 am December 27        tropical low        16.6S        121.8E        225
+36hr        8 pm December 27        tropical low        17.8S        121.3E        240
+48hr        8 am December 28        1        18.4S        120.8E        225
+60hr        8 pm December 28        2        19.4S        120.4E        210
+72hr        8 am December 29        1        20.5S        120.7E        350

zjk369

已發布MEDIUM

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.5S 125.4E, APPROXIMATELY 830 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
251327Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY WEAK AND BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXTENT OR TIMING OF CONSOLIDATION, WITH
NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND INTENSIFYING TO STORM STRENGTH
AT AROUND TAU 120. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.